‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.