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Initially, the former US president seemed to embrace a resolute position on Ukraine. After issuing statements of "serious repercussions" last August if Putin continued blocking peace talks, Trump finally introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, he has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will please the leader. But, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in status the presently split oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a open route to the capital if he subsequently choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would enable renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal sets no such constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "Every Nazi belief system and practices must be opposed and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the plan has Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "immediate unified defense action" if Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. However different from a strong national defense – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not