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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.